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| The derivation and application of the prediction formula for malignant risk factors in thyroid nodules |
| ZHANG Gao-song |
| Department of Ultrasound, Lu’an Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Lu’an Anhui 237006, China |
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Abstract Objective: To explore a more objective, accurate and practical method for predicting the malignant risk coefficient of thyroid nodules. Method: From May 2013 to February 2016, 417 nodules were detected in 305 patients with thyroid nodules in surgical system at the Lu’an Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine. In the preoperative ultrasound examination, the information of 11 ultrasonic signs were recorded according to the pilot experiment. Benign and malignant as the dependent variable, and 11 ultrasound signs as the independent variables, regression coefficient and partial regression coefficients are obtained by Logistic regression analysis. After examination, the formula P=en(1+en), n=β0+β1X1+......+βpXp, was adopted and a formula for predicting the malignant risk coefficient of a single nodule became available to calculate the risk coefficient of each case. Follow up was performed in each case, the ROC curve was drawn, and the cut-off value was determined. The prediction formula for the malignant risk coefficient and cut-off values were applied to the ultrasonic diagnosis of 64 patients with thyroid nodules. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated. Result: Basing on the formula of risk factor prediction for thyroid nodules, the correct rate was 89.1%, sensitivity was 91.7%, specificity was 88.5%, and Youden index was 80.2%. Conclusion: The formula for predicting the malignant risk of thyroid nodules by ultrasound is a relatively easy, accurate, objective and quantifiable assessment tool.
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Received: 13 March 2017
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2018, Vol. 29 
